The Structure and Purpose of Argument
论证的结构与目的
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The first section of this course examined how massively flawed our brains are as a tool for understanding the universe, but we do have the ability to reason. This next section of the course will address how to use that reasoning ability to override the flaws in our neurological function. This lecture will begin with a discussion of the structure and purpose of argument itself. Then, you will learn about specific logical fallacies with the goal of avoiding such fallacies in your thinking and recognizing these fallacies in the arguments of others.
本课程的第一部分考察了:作为理解宇宙的工具,我们的大脑存在多么严重的缺陷;但我们确实具备推理能力。课程接下来的部分将讨论如何运用这种推理能力,克服神经系统运作中的缺陷。本讲将首先讨论论证本身的结构和目的。随后,你将学习一些具体的逻辑谬误,目标是在自己的思考中避免这些谬误,并识别他人论证中的这些谬误。
Logic and Arguments
逻辑与论证
The purpose of an argument for a critical thinker is not to win, although that is often the default mode of how we behave. Often, we pick a side and then defend that side at all costs, marshaling whatever arguments we think can defend that position.
对于批判性思考者而言,论证的目的不是获胜,尽管这往往是我们的默认行为模式。我们常常先选择一方,然后不惜一切代价为这一方辩护,罗列一切我们认为能够支持该立场的论据。
The critical thinking approach to argumentation is to value the process of developing your arguments and reaching conclusions; a critical thinker should be willing to change any conclusion when new information or a better argument is presented.
批判性思维式的论证方法,是重视形成论证和得出结论的过程;当出现新信息或更好的论证时,批判性思考者应当愿意改变任何结论。
Rationalizing is the process of starting with the conclusion and then figuring out which arguments can be marshaled in order to defend that conclusion. On the other hand, reasoning focuses on the process going forward, where the conclusion flows from the logic and not the other way around.
“合理化”是先从结论出发,再设法找出可以用来为该结论辩护的论据的过程。相反,推理关注的是向前推进的过程:结论应当由逻辑自然推出,而不是反过来由结论倒推逻辑。
Often, we use the rationalizing process, which can seem very superficially similar to reason. In fact, the point of rationalizing is to make it seem as if our decisions and conclusions are reasonable.
我们经常采用合理化的过程;它表面上看起来与推理非常相似。实际上,合理化的目的,是让我们的决定和结论看起来仿佛是合理的。
When we have a conclusion that is discordant—that is not in line with the facts or is challenged by a new argument or new piece of
当我们得出一个不协调的结论——也就是说,这个结论与事实不一致,或者受到新的论证或新的
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information—our tendency is to rationalize that new information in order to resolve the cognitive dissonance that results, and then our brains reward us for doing that.
信息挑战时——我们往往会把这些新信息合理化,以消除由此产生的认知失调,而大脑还会因为我们这样做而给予奖励。
To avoid cognitive dissonance, we should focus on the process instead. In other words, if we don’t tie ourselves firmly to a conclusion, then we won’t feel any emotional dissonance when new data is encountered that shows that the conclusion is wrong.
为了避免认知失调,我们应当转而关注过程。换句话说,如果我们不把自己牢牢绑定在某个结论上,那么当遇到表明该结论错误的新数据时,就不会感到情绪上的失调。
Specifically, in logic, the term “argument” is a set of statements used to support a conclusion. An argument must start with specific premises and then logically derive a conclusion from those premises. Explanations and assertions are not arguments.
具体来说,在逻辑学中,“论证”(argument)是用于支持某个结论的一组陈述。论证必须从明确的前提(premises)开始,然后从这些前提中通过逻辑推导出结论。解释和断言并不是论证。
A premise is a starting point; it is a fact or assumption that we take as a given at the beginning of an argument. If a premise is false, then any argument that is based upon that premise is not sound. Therefore, it’s very important to examine all of the premises and to recognize what the premises of an argument actually are. Often, that is a missing step in an argument.
前提是一个出发点;它是在论证开始时被我们视为既定的事实或假设。如果某个前提为假,那么任何建立在该前提之上的论证都不是健全的(sound)。因此,检查全部前提,并辨认一个论证实际包含哪些前提,非常重要。这往往正是论证中缺失的一步。
Assumptions can be used as premises, but we need to recognize when we are starting with a statement that is not an established fact. It is not known whether an assumption is true; it might be incomplete and might not fully capture the whole situation. Assumptions or incomplete premises weaken an argument because the argument is only as good as the premises on which it is based.
假设可以作为前提使用,但我们需要意识到,自己何时是从一个未经确立的事实陈述出发的。假设是否为真尚不得而知;它可能是不完整的,也可能无法充分涵盖整个情况。假设或不完整的前提会削弱论证,因为论证的质量不会超过其所依据的前提。
When two or more people disagree over a factual statement, one side or both sides must be wrong in some way. By definition, two mutually exclusive conclusions can’t both be correct at the same time.
当两个人或更多人对一个事实陈述存在分歧时,其中一方或双方必定在某种程度上是错的。按照定义,两个互相排斥的结论不可能同时都是正确的。
The goal should be to examine both of your arguments to find out where the assumptions are in the premises, where the false premises are, or where the errors in logic are. If you can work together to discover the errors and assumptions of logic, then you should be
目标应当是检查你们双方的论证,找出前提中的假设、错误的前提,或逻辑错误所在之处。如果你们能够共同找出逻辑中的错误和假设,那么你们应该就能
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able to resolve your differences and come to a better conclusion.
解决彼此的分歧,并得出更好的结论。
Logic Jargon
逻辑术语
If a claim is true, it is factually correct; it is in line with reality. Arguments themselves are not true or false; their conclusions are true or false.
如果一个主张(claim)为真,那么它在事实上就是正确的;它与现实相符。论证本身不能说是真或假;它们的结论才是真或假。
The goal of an argument between two people should be to uncover assumptions, false premises, and errors in logic.
Image credit: Pixland/Thinkstock.
两个人之间进行论证的目标,应当是揭示假设、错误的前提和逻辑错误。
图片来源:Pixland/Thinkstock。
In most cases, we do not have access to truth with metaphysical certitude, so what we’re really looking for is something that is established to a sufficient degree that we can treat it as if it were a fact, although we know that all true statements are tentative in some way because they are dependent upon our incomplete current level of knowledge.
在大多数情况下,我们无法以形而上的确定性获得真理。因此,我们真正寻找的是:某件事已经被确立到足够的程度,使我们可以把它当作事实来对待;不过我们也知道,所有真陈述在某种程度上都是暂定的,因为它们依赖于我们当前尚不完整的知识水平。
If the logic works, then an argument is valid. One or more premises may still be wrong or unjustified, but an argument fails when it is impossible for the conclusion to be false if the premises are true.
如果逻辑成立,那么一个论证就是有效的(valid)。一个或多个前提仍可能是错误的或缺乏正当依据,但当在前提为真的情况下结论不可能为假时,论证就会失败。
An argument is sound when all of the premises are true and the logic is valid. The conclusion of a sound argument, therefore, must be true by definition; if the premises are true, then the conclusion must also be true.
当所有前提都为真且逻辑有效时,一个论证就是健全的(sound)。因此,健全论证的结论按定义必然为真;如果前提为真,那么结论也必然为真。
The conclusion of an unsound or invalid argument, however, may or may not be true. Demonstrating that an argument is unsound or invalid does not prove the conclusion to be false—it just removes that argument as justification for the conclusion.
然而,一个不健全或无效论证的结论可能为真,也可能不为真。证明一个论证不健全或无效,并不能证明其结论为假——这只意味着不能再把该论证作为该结论的依据。
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Deductive reasoning uses premises to connect to a conclusion. Deduction goes from the general to the specific. You start with some general statements, and then you deduce a specific instance that must be true if those general statements are themselves true.
演绎推理(deductive reasoning)利用前提连接到结论。演绎是从一般到具体。你从一些一般性陈述出发,然后推导出一个具体事例;只要这些一般性陈述本身为真,该具体事例就必然为真。
For example, if premise one is that all men are mortal and premise two is that Socrates is a man, then we can arrive at the conclusion that Socrates is therefore mortal.
例如,如果前提一是“所有人都会死”,前提二是“苏格拉底是人”,那么我们就可以得出结论:因此,苏格拉底会死。
Conclusions of deductive reasoning are positive assertions. They are truth statements—not value judgments, which involve subjectivity regarding what we believe. For example, there is no way to prove that Beethoven’s music is better than Mozart’s. Oftentimes, arguments involve one or more value judgments in the premises, and when you identify them, you can at least agree to disagree.
演绎推理的结论是肯定性断言。它们是关于真假的陈述,而不是价值判断;价值判断涉及我们所相信之事的主观性。例如,我们无法证明贝多芬的音乐优于莫扎特的音乐。论证往往在前提中包含一个或多个价值判断;当你识别出这些价值判断时,至少可以承认彼此意见不同。
In contrast to deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning goes from a specific observation to a general principle. Inductive reasoning is used to decide what is probably true based on observations. Science is largely based on inductive reasoning.
与演绎推理相反,归纳推理(inductive reasoning)从具体观察出发,归纳出一般原则。归纳推理用于根据观察判断什么可能是真的。科学在很大程度上建立在归纳推理之上。
For example, if premise one is that every swan that has ever been observed is white, we may come to the inductive conclusion that all swans are white. However, this statement is falsifiable; the observation of a single black swan will render the statement untrue. Then, the statement might have to be modified to the notion that most swans are white or, perhaps, that all swans except for the species of black swans are white.
例如,如果前提一是“迄今观察到的每一只天鹅都是白色的”,我们可能会归纳出“所有天鹅都是白色的”这一结论。然而,这个陈述是可证伪的;只要观察到一只黑天鹅,该陈述就会变成假的。于是,这个陈述可能必须修改为“多数天鹅是白色的”,或者也许修改为“除黑天鹅物种外,所有天鹅都是白色的”。
Types of Logical Fallacies
逻辑谬误的类型
Logical fallacies are arguments in which the conclusion does not have to be true if the premises are true. The generic term for this type of invalid logic is the non sequitur, which literally means “it does not follow”—or the conclusion does not follow from the premises. Essentially, logical fallacies are our mechanisms for rationalizing conclusions.
逻辑谬误是这样一类论证:即使前提为真,结论也不必然为真。这种无效逻辑的统称是不相干推论(non sequitur),字面意思是“它并不随之推出”——也就是结论并不能从前提中推出。从根本上说,逻辑谬误是我们用来合理化结论的机制。
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The argument from authority is a logical fallacy that typically suggests that a conclusion is correct because an authority figure asserts that it is correct. The more general form is that a conclusion is correct because a person or a group making the claim have some positive or admirable attribute. For example, John says it’s true, and he’s a nice man; therefore, his conclusion must be correct.
诉诸权威(argument from authority)是一种逻辑谬误,通常认为某个结论之所以正确,是因为某位权威人物断言它正确。更一般的形式是:因为提出主张的个人或群体具有某种积极或令人钦佩的属性,所以结论就是正确的。例如,约翰说这是真的,而且他是个好人;因此,他的结论一定是正确的。
We have this evolved desire to get along with the social group and to follow a leader of some sort, and we therefore have this tendency to respect celebrities, officials, experts, and professionals—people who have some claim to authority.
我们进化出了与社会群体相处融洽、追随某种领袖的欲望,因此倾向于尊重名人、官员、专家和专业人士——也就是那些在某种程度上拥有权威地位的人。
The argument from authority can also be overapplied, meaning that we can dismiss legitimate arguments by the claim that they are arguments from authority. In other words, because the argument from authority is a logical fallacy, that doesn’t mean that we should be dismissive of the value of the consensus of expert opinion.
诉诸权威也可能被过度套用,也就是说,我们可能仅仅因为某些论证属于诉诸权威,就把合理的论证也一概驳回。换句话说,诉诸权威是一种逻辑谬误,并不意味着我们应当轻视专家意见共识的价值。
Another logical fallacy is the argument from final consequences. The form that this fallacy typically takes is that some claim cannot be true if it results in consequences that you find abhorrent; the opposite of this fallacy is that something is true because it serves a positive purpose.
另一种逻辑谬误是诉诸最终后果(argument from final consequences)。这种谬误通常表现为:如果某个主张会导致你认为可憎的后果,那么它就不可能是真的;与之相反的形式则是:某件事因为具有积极作用,所以它就是真的。
We often see this argument in conspiracy theories, for example. The logic that often goes into conspiracy theories is the principle of cui bono, or “who benefits.” If an event occurs, the conspiracy theorist might ask, “Who benefited from this event?” Then, they would argue that, therefore, that person must have caused the event through some hidden conspiracy.
例如,我们经常在阴谋论中看到这种论证。阴谋论常用的逻辑是 cui bono 原则,即“谁从中获益”。如果某个事件发生了,阴谋论者可能会问:“谁从这个事件中获益了?”然后他们就会据此断言:因此,那个人一定是通过某个隐藏的阴谋造成了该事件。
A very common logical fallacy is called post hoc ergo propter hoc: “after which hence by which.” We tend to assume that if B follows A, therefore A must have caused B.
一种非常常见的逻辑谬误叫作post hoc ergo propter hoc:“在此之后,因此由此而来”。我们倾向于假定:如果 B 发生在 A 之后,那么 A 一定导致了 B。
This logical fallacy derives from innumeracy, a naivety about statistics and probability. We are impressed with the pattern that B followed A, and we instinctively don’t like the explanation that the occurrence is a statistical fluke or just random chance. We like to impose meaning on the patterns that we see.
这种逻辑谬误源于数理无知(innumeracy),也就是对统计学和概率的幼稚无知。B 紧随 A 发生这一模式会给我们留下深刻印象,而我们本能地不喜欢这样的解释:这件事只是统计上的偶然,或纯粹是随机发生的。我们喜欢给自己看到的模式强加意义。
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Very similar to this is confusing correlation with causation, in which the form of the argument is not just that B follows A, but that B correlates with A. Where we see B, we also see A. The assumption, therefore, is that A must cause B. However, this is not logically the case. It’s possible that B causes A. It’s also possible that some other factor, C or D, causes both B and A. This also assumes that the correlation is real and not a coincidence.
与此非常相似的是把相关性与因果性混淆。这里的论证形式不仅是 B 发生在 A 之后,而是 B 与 A 相关:我们看到 B 的地方,也看到 A。因此作出的假设是,A 一定导致了 B。然而,从逻辑上说并非如此。也可能是 B 导致 A;也可能是某个其他因素 C 或 D 同时导致了 B 和 A。这种论证还假定相关性是真实的,而不是巧合。
Similar to the argument from authority, the logical fallacy of assuming causation from correlation can be overapplied to dismiss the very legitimate significance of a correlation. Once we establish that a correlation is real, that doesn’t mean that there’s no causal relationship between the two things. It means that there are a number of possible causal relationships, one of which may be the simplest one: that A causes B.
与诉诸权威类似,把相关性推定为因果性的逻辑谬误也可能被过度套用,从而否定相关性本身完全合理的意义。一旦我们确认相关性是真实的,这并不意味着两件事之间不存在因果关系;它意味着存在多种可能的因果关系,其中一种可能是最简单的那一种:A 导致 B。
Another logical fallacy is special pleading, which is also called ad hoc or post-hoc reasoning, meaning that we invent reasons as needed in order to explain certain aspects of the evidence. This logic is not formally invalid. The fallacy occurs in the process of invoking these arguments after we know that they’re needed to crudely construct a problematic conclusion.
另一种逻辑谬误是特别辩护(special pleading),也叫作 ad hoc 推理或事后推理,意思是我们为了说明证据的某些方面,按需要临时编造理由。这种逻辑在形式上并非无效。谬误发生在这样一个过程中:我们先知道需要这些论据,然后才调用它们,粗略拼凑出一个有问题的结论。
This kind of logic may be a way of generating a hypothesis but can’t be used as a premise or conclusion to dismiss inconvenient evidence or the absence of evidence that should be there.
这种逻辑可以用来生成假设,但不能把它当作前提或结论,用来排斥不方便的证据,或排斥本应存在却缺失的证据。
The special pleading fallacy is related to the fallacy of limited scope, which involves introducing a new element that is not a broadly applicable principle. It narrowly addresses a single flaw in evidence or argument.
特别辩护谬误与范围有限(limited scope)谬误有关。后者会引入一个并非普遍适用原则的新元素,只狭隘地处理证据或论证中的单个漏洞。
This type of argument has been invoked frequently to explain why there is no evidence of the existence of Bigfoot. Some have argued that perhaps he can turn invisible, travel through other dimensions, or disappear when needed to—and that’s why you can never trap him.
人们经常调用这种论证来解释为什么没有证据证明大脚怪(Bigfoot)存在。有人认为,也许大脚怪能够隐身、穿越其他维度,或者在需要时消失——所以你永远不可能抓住它。
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Important Terms
重要术语
argument: A statement that is used to support a conclusion or belief, often following deductive reasoning.
argument(论证):用于支持某个结论或信念的陈述,通常遵循演绎推理。
deductive reasoning: Reasoning that begins with one or more general statements that are taken as premises and then concludes what must be true if the premises are true.
deductive reasoning(演绎推理):从一个或多个被当作前提的一般性陈述开始,然后得出:如果这些前提为真,什么就必然为真。
inductive reasoning: Inductive reasoning begins with observations of the world and then derives general statements about what is probably true from those observations.
inductive reasoning(归纳推理):从对世界的观察开始,然后根据这些观察推导出关于什么可能为真的一般性陈述。
innumeracy: A lack of working knowledge of mathematics, probability, and statistics.
innumeracy(数理无知):缺乏数学、概率和统计学方面可实际运用的知识。
logical fallacy: A logical operation that is not valid.
logical fallacy(逻辑谬误):无效的逻辑运算。
non sequitur: A Latin term referring to an invalid argument in which the conclusion does not logically follow from the premises.
non sequitur(不相干推论):一个拉丁术语,指一种无效论证,其中结论在逻辑上无法从前提推出。
post hoc ergo propter hoc: Literally meaning “after which hence by which,” a logical fallacy in which it is assumed that B is caused by A simply because B follows A.
post hoc ergo propter hoc:字面意思是“在此之后,因此由此而来”;一种逻辑谬误,仅仅因为 B 发生在 A 之后,就假定 B 是由 A 导致的。
premise: A fact that is assumed to be true, or treated as if it is true, as a starting point for an argument.
premise(前提):被假定为真,或被当作真的事实,作为论证的出发点。
sound: In logic, this describes an argument that has both true premises and valid logic, and therefore, the conclusion must be true.
sound(健全):在逻辑学中,指一个同时具有真实前提和有效逻辑的论证,因此其结论必然为真。
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Suggested Reading
推荐阅读
Novella, “How to Argue.”
Novella,《如何论证》(How to Argue)。
———, “Beware the Nobel Laureate Argument from Authority.”
———,《谨防“诺贝尔奖得主诉诸权威”》(Beware the Nobel Laureate Argument from Authority)。
Tarski, Introduction to Logic.
Tarski,《逻辑导论》(Introduction to Logic)。
Questions to Consider
思考问题
1. What is a logical fallacy, and how can we recognize these fallacies in the arguments of others and of ourselves?
1. 什么是逻辑谬误?我们如何在他人和自己的论证中识别这些谬误?
2. Are arguments based on the authority of the source of information ever valid?
2. 以信息来源的权威性为依据的论证,是否有可能是有效的?